Lagun Onak 2–3 Portugalete: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Portugalete

10/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Lagun Onak34%

×Draw27%

Portugalete39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchPortugalete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.27

Lagun Onak

1.17

Portugalete

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 98 away

1.35

creates per match

1.56

0.97

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Portugalete

1.56

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Portugalete

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Portugalete →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

61%

Lagun Onak or Portugalete

73%

Draw or Portugalete

66%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

14%

Portugalete wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

69%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

33%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

11%

Portugalete 1+ goals

72%

Portugalete 2+ goals

36%

Portugalete 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

47%

Portugalete (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Portugalete defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Portugalete attack 1.56 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

34%

level

27%

Portugalete scores more

39%

Portugalete at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff