Lagun Onak 2–2 Beti Gazte: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Beti Gazte

Jagoba Erdozia 68'

Iker Olaizola 27'

Ibon Leiza 44'

Urki Txoperena 3'

10/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lagun Onak63%

×Draw21%

Beti Gazte16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchBeti Gazte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.91

Lagun Onak

2.04

Beti Gazte

0.91

Lagun Onak creates 124% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

0.84

0.97

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Beti Gazte

0.84

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Beti Gazte

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Beti Gazte →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

84%

Lagun Onak or Beti Gazte

79%

Draw or Beti Gazte

37%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

39%

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

87%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

60%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

33%

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

60%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

23%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

80%

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.04

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

63%

level

21%

Beti Gazte scores more

16%

Lagun Onak at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

27'

44'

46'

Kevin Cortés← Ibon Leiza

60'

Zubillaga← Gorka Amuchastegui

60'

Barquero← Jon Aranda

63'

Jon Zabala← Jonan Arbelaitz

68'

Jagoba Erdozia

80'

Oinatz Elustondo← Aitor Díez

80'

Egoitz Iraola← Gereta

89'

Iñigo Zuzaya← Jon Ubiria

Lagun

Beti

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

13'▲Donazar←▼Manex Iradi

60'▲Zubillaga←▼Gorka Amuchastegui

60'▲Barquero←▼Jon Aranda

80'▲Oinatz Elustondo←▼Aitor Díez

80'▲Egoitz Iraola←▼Gereta

Lagun Onak substitutes

DonazarZubillagaBarqueroElustondoIraola

Manager: Joseba Roteta

46'▲Kevin Cortés←▼Ibon Leiza

63'▲Jon Zabala←▼Jonan Arbelaitz

89'▲Iñigo Zuzaya←▼Jon Ubiria

Beti Gazte substitutes

CortésZabalaZuzaya

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Beti Gazte

Lagun Onak and Beti Gazte drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 30, 2021.

Goals: Urki Txoperena (3'), Iker Olaizola (27'), Ibon Leiza (44'), Jagoba Erdozia (68').

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Beti Gazte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Beti Gazte