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Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
4/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lagun Onak53%
×Draw25%
Aurrerá Vitoria21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagun Onak
1.56
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.89

Lagun Onak creates 75% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lagun Onak
1.35
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Lagun Onak
0.97
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw
79%
Lagun Onak or Aurrerá Vitoria
75%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
47%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+
28%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals
79%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
46%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
21%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
59%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
22%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
71%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lagun Onak scores more
53%
level
25%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
21%

Lagun Onak at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lagun Onak 1 – 0 Aurrerá Vitoria

Lagun Onak beat Aurrerá Vitoria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.