Lagun Onak 0–0 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aurrerá Ondarroa

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Lagun Onak50%

×Draw26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Lagun Onak

1.50

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.95

Lagun Onak creates 58% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 66 away

1.35

creates per match

0.92

0.97

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

76%

Lagun Onak or Aurrerá Ondarroa

74%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

50%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

78%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

44%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

19%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

61%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

68%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

50%

level

26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

24%

Lagun Onak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 0–0 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Lagun Onak and Aurrerá Ondarroa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 0–0 Aurrerá Ondarroa