Lagun Onak 3–1 Añorga: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Añorga

10/28/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lagun Onak62%

×Draw23%

Añorga15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchAñorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.72

Lagun Onak

1.77

Añorga

0.72

Lagun Onak creates 146% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 33 away

1.35

creates per match

0.48

0.97

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Añorga

0.48

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Añorga

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Añorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Añorga →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

85%

Lagun Onak or Añorga

77%

Draw or Añorga

38%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

36%

Añorga wins by 2+

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

83%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

53%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

26%

Añorga 1+ goals

51%

Añorga 2+ goals

16%

Añorga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

81%

Añorga (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Añorga away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Añorga defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.77

Añorga attack 0.48 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

62%

level

23%

Añorga scores more

15%

Lagun Onak at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff