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Lagos vs Pevidem — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lagos
Lagos
FT
1 – 3
Pevidem
Pevidem
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Fernando Cabrita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lagos29%
×Draw26%
Pevidem46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagos
1.13
Pevidem
1.50

Pevidem creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lagos
1.25
Pevidem
1.50

allows per match

Lagos
1.50
Pevidem
1.00

finishing

Lagos+0.00on par
Pevidem+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagos ↓

Pevidem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lagos or draw
54%
Lagos or Pevidem
74%
Draw or Pevidem
71%

Winning margin

Lagos wins by 2+
11%
Pevidem wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lagos 1+ goals
68%
Lagos 2+ goals
31%
Lagos 3+ goals
11%
Pevidem 1+ goals
78%
Pevidem 2+ goals
44%
Pevidem 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lagos (draw refunded)
38%
Pevidem (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagos at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Pevidem away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagos attack 1.25 + Pevidem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pevidem attack 1.50 + Lagos defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lagos scores more
29%
level
26%
Pevidem scores more
46%

Pevidem at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pevidem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lagos 1 – 3 Pevidem

Pevidem beat Lagos 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Fernando Cabrita in Lagos.