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Lagos vs Lusitano GC Évora — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lagos
Lagos
FT
1 – 0
Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
9/7/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal Fernando Cabrita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lagos43%
×Draw27%
Lusitano GC Évora31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagos
1.38
Lusitano GC Évora
1.13

Lagos creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lagos
1.25
Lusitano GC Évora
0.75

allows per match

Lagos
1.50
Lusitano GC Évora
1.50

finishing

Lagos+0.00on par
Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagos ↓

Lusitano GC Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lagos or draw
69%
Lagos or Lusitano GC Évora
73%
Draw or Lusitano GC Évora
57%

Winning margin

Lagos wins by 2+
20%
Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lagos 1+ goals
75%
Lagos 2+ goals
40%
Lagos 3+ goals
16%
Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
68%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
31%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lagos (draw refunded)
58%
Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagos at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Lusitano GC Évora away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagos attack 1.25 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lusitano GC Évora attack 0.75 + Lagos defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lagos scores more
43%
level
27%
Lusitano GC Évora scores more
31%

Lagos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lagos 1–0 Lusitano GC Évora

Lagos beat Lusitano GC Évora 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Fernando Cabrita in Lagos.