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Lago Verde vs Tupan — Maranhense - 2 2026

Lago Verde
Lago Verdeadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tupan
Tupan
10/11/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lago Verde67%
×Draw17%
Tupan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lago Verde
2.68
Tupan
1.27

Lago Verde creates 111% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lago Verde
2.86
Tupan
1.25

allows per match

Lago Verde
1.29
Tupan
2.50

finishing

Lago Verde+0.00on par
Tupan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lago Verde ↓

Tupan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lago Verde or draw
84%
Lago Verde or Tupan
83%
Draw or Tupan
33%

Winning margin

Lago Verde wins by 2+
46%
Tupan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lago Verde 1+ goals
93%
Lago Verde 2+ goals
74%
Lago Verde 3+ goals
49%
Tupan 1+ goals
72%
Tupan 2+ goals
36%
Tupan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lago Verde (draw refunded)
80%
Tupan (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lago Verde at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Tupan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lago Verde attack 2.86 + Tupan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.68

Tupan attack 1.25 + Lago Verde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Lago Verde scores more
67%
level
17%
Tupan scores more
16%

Lago Verde at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Lago Verde 3–1 Tupan

Lago Verde beat Tupan 3-1 in Maranhense - 2 on October 11, 2025.