Lagarto 2–1 União Carmolandense: Result & Stats

Lagarto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

União Carmolandense

L. H. Zanatelli 65'

D. Luiz Silva 33'

Tiba 78'

4/19/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lagarto53%

×Draw24%

União Carmolandense23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LagartoExpected goals in this matchUnião Carmolandense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.00

Lagarto

1.68

União Carmolandense

1.00

Lagarto creates 68% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.79

creates per match

0.71

1.29

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Lagarto

1.79

União Carmolandense

0.71

allows per match

Lagarto

1.29

União Carmolandense

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagarto+0.00on par

União Carmolandense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagarto ↓

União Carmolandense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lagarto or draw

77%

Lagarto or União Carmolandense

76%

Draw or União Carmolandense

47%

Winning margin

Lagarto wins by 2+

29%

União Carmolandense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lagarto 1+ goals

81%

Lagarto 2+ goals

50%

Lagarto 3+ goals

24%

União Carmolandense 1+ goals

63%

União Carmolandense 2+ goals

26%

União Carmolandense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lagarto (draw refunded)

70%

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagarto at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

União Carmolandense away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagarto attack 1.79 + União Carmolandense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

União Carmolandense attack 0.71 + Lagarto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lagarto scores more

53%

level

24%

União Carmolandense scores more

23%

Lagarto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lagarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

D. Luiz Silva

65'

L. H. Zanatelli

78'

Tiba

Lagarto

União

⚽

Manager: Alan Dotti

Lagarto substitutes

ÍtaloNeguebaCearáCrispimBrennoNeriMaranhãoGuilhermeZanetteDaniel

Manager: Barbosa

União Carmolandense substitutes

IanEthorAfonsoAlberioneThalysonVictorBrasileiroBarrosElias

Match Recap: Lagarto vs União Carmolandense

Lagarto beat União Carmolandense 2-1 in Serie D on April 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Luiz Silva (33'), L. H. Zanatelli (65'), Tiba (78').

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes in Lagarto, Sergipe.

Lagarto vs União Carmolandense — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lagarto vs União Carmolandense