Lagarto 2–0 Barcelona BA: Result & Stats | Serie D

Lagarto

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Barcelona BA

D. Luiz Silva 19'

Thierry 9'

7/19/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 13Estadio Paulo Barreto de Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lagarto63%

×Draw22%

Barcelona BA15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LagartoExpected goals in this matchBarcelona BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.79

Lagarto

1.90

Barcelona BA

0.79

Lagarto creates 141% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.79

creates per match

0.29

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lagarto

1.79

Barcelona BA

0.29

allows per match

Lagarto

1.29

Barcelona BA

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagarto+0.00on par

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagarto ↓

Barcelona BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lagarto or draw

85%

Lagarto or Barcelona BA

78%

Draw or Barcelona BA

37%

Winning margin

Lagarto wins by 2+

38%

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lagarto 1+ goals

85%

Lagarto 2+ goals

56%

Lagarto 3+ goals

29%

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

55%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

19%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lagarto (draw refunded)

81%

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagarto at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagarto attack 1.79 + Barcelona BA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Barcelona BA attack 0.29 + Lagarto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lagarto scores more

63%

level

22%

Barcelona BA scores more

15%

Lagarto at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lagarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Thierry

19'

D. Luiz Silva

Lagarto

Barcelona

Manager: Alan Dotti

Manager: Carlos Rabello