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Lafnitz II vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
CANC
00:00
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
4/4/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lafnitz II68%
×Draw17%
Hitthaller St. Michael15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lafnitz II
2.70
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.23

Lafnitz II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lafnitz II
2.49
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Lafnitz II
1.38
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw
85%
Lafnitz II or Hitthaller St. Michael
83%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
32%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+
47%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals
93%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
75%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
50%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
71%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
35%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
81%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.70

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lafnitz II scores more
68%
level
17%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
15%

Lafnitz II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lafnitz II host Hitthaller St. Michael

April 4, 2020: Lafnitz II take on Hitthaller St. Michael in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lafnitz II host Hitthaller St. Michael at Sportplatz Lafnitz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.