Lafnitz II 3–2 Gnas: Result & Stats

Lafnitz II

FT

3 – 2

Gnas

9/16/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 7Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Lafnitz II59%

×Draw20%

Gnas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lafnitz IIExpected goals in this matchGnas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.27

Lafnitz II

2.25

Gnas

1.27

Lafnitz II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

2.49

creates per match

1.16

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lafnitz II

2.49

Gnas

1.16

allows per match

Lafnitz II

1.38

Gnas

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

Gnas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw

79%

Lafnitz II or Gnas

80%

Draw or Gnas

41%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+

37%

Gnas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals

89%

Lafnitz II 2+ goals

65%

Lafnitz II 3+ goals

39%

Gnas 1+ goals

72%

Gnas 2+ goals

36%

Gnas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)

74%

Gnas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Gnas attack 1.16 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lafnitz II scores more

59%

level

20%

Gnas scores more

21%

Lafnitz II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff