Lafnitz II 3–3 Fürstenfeld: Result & Stats

Lafnitz II

FT

3 – 3

Fürstenfeld

3/29/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Lafnitz II53%

×Draw21%

Fürstenfeld26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lafnitz IIExpected goals in this matchFürstenfeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.42

Lafnitz II

2.10

Fürstenfeld

1.42

Lafnitz II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 87 away

2.49

creates per match

1.47

1.38

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lafnitz II

2.49

Fürstenfeld

1.47

allows per match

Lafnitz II

1.38

Fürstenfeld

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Fürstenfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

Fürstenfeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw

74%

Lafnitz II or Fürstenfeld

79%

Draw or Fürstenfeld

47%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+

31%

Fürstenfeld wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals

88%

Lafnitz II 2+ goals

62%

Lafnitz II 3+ goals

35%

Fürstenfeld 1+ goals

76%

Fürstenfeld 2+ goals

41%

Fürstenfeld 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)

67%

Fürstenfeld (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Fürstenfeld away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + Fürstenfeld defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.10

Fürstenfeld attack 1.47 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lafnitz II scores more

53%

level

21%

Fürstenfeld scores more

26%

Lafnitz II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff