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Lafnitz II vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
FT
2 – 2
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
9/29/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 9Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Lafnitz II63%
×Draw18%
Bruck an der Mur19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lafnitz II
2.53
Bruck an der Mur
1.34

Lafnitz II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 74 away

creates per match

Lafnitz II
2.49
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Lafnitz II
1.38
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw
81%
Lafnitz II or Bruck an der Mur
82%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
37%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+
41%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals
92%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
71%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
46%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
74%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
39%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
77%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.53

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lafnitz II scores more
63%
level
18%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
19%

Lafnitz II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lafnitz II vs Bruck an der Mur

Lafnitz II and Bruck an der Mur drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lafnitz in Lafnitz.