Ladispoli 4–1 Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

Ladispoli

FT

4 – 1

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

11/17/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 12Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ladispoli53%

×Draw24%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LadispoliExpected goals in this matchPro Calcio Tor Sapienza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.07

Ladispoli

1.73

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

1.07

Ladispoli creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

0.77

1.38

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Ladispoli

1.15

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

0.77

allows per match

Ladispoli

1.38

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ladispoli+0.00on par

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladispoli ↓

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ladispoli or draw

77%

Ladispoli or Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

76%

Draw or Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

47%

Winning margin

Ladispoli wins by 2+

29%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ladispoli 1+ goals

82%

Ladispoli 2+ goals

52%

Ladispoli 3+ goals

25%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 1+ goals

66%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 2+ goals

29%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ladispoli (draw refunded)

69%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladispoli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladispoli attack 1.15 + Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza attack 0.77 + Ladispoli defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ladispoli scores more

53%

level

24%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza scores more

23%

Ladispoli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ladispoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff