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Ladispoli vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ladispoli
Ladispoli
FT
0 – 1
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
10/20/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 8Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ladispoli40%
×Draw26%
Latte Dolce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladispoli
1.37
Latte Dolce
1.24

Ladispoli creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 82 away

creates per match

Ladispoli
1.15
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Ladispoli
1.38
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Ladispoli+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladispoli ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ladispoli or draw
66%
Ladispoli or Latte Dolce
74%
Draw or Latte Dolce
60%

Winning margin

Ladispoli wins by 2+
18%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ladispoli 1+ goals
75%
Ladispoli 2+ goals
40%
Ladispoli 3+ goals
16%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
71%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
35%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ladispoli (draw refunded)
54%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladispoli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladispoli attack 1.15 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Ladispoli defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ladispoli scores more
40%
level
26%
Latte Dolce scores more
34%

Ladispoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ladispoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ladispoli 0–1 Latte Dolce

Latte Dolce beat Ladispoli 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli).