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Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs Vasas Femina W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
FT
1 – 1
Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
10/23/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 6Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W42%
×Draw19%
Vasas Femina W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
2.40
Vasas Femina W
2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.56
Vasas Femina W
1.34

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.25
Vasas Femina W
3.24

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par
Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

Vasas Femina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw
62%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W or Vasas Femina W
81%
Draw or Vasas Femina W
58%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
25%
Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
91%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
69%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
42%
Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
90%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
66%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
52%
Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.40

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
42%
level
19%
Vasas Femina W scores more
38%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ladies Târgu Mureş W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1–1 Vasas Femina W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W and Vasas Femina W drew 1-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Academia de Sport in Târgu Mureș.