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Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs Universitatea Galaţi W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
FT
5 – 1
Universitatea Galaţi W
Universitatea Galaţi W
12/4/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 11Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W60%
×Draw17%
Universitatea Galaţi W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.18
Universitatea Galaţi W
2.00

Ladies Târgu Mureş W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.56
Universitatea Galaţi W
0.74

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.25
Universitatea Galaţi W
4.81

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par
Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

Universitatea Galaţi W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw
77%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W or Universitatea Galaţi W
83%
Draw or Universitatea Galaţi W
40%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
41%
Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
96%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
82%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
60%
Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals
86%
Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals
59%
Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
72%
Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

Universitatea Galaţi W away — creates 0.74, concedes 4.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 4.81 → ÷2 → 3.18

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 0.74 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
60%
level
17%
Universitatea Galaţi W scores more
23%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ladies Târgu Mureş W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Ladies Târgu Mureş W 5–1 Universitatea Galaţi W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W beat Universitatea Galaţi W 5-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Academia de Sport in Târgu Mureș.