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Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
FT
1 – 4
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
5/12/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 10Baza Sportivă Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W21%
×Draw18%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.46
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
2.58

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.56
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.25
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.36

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw
39%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
82%
Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
79%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
9%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
77%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
43%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
18%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
92%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
72%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
25%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
21%
level
18%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
61%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 4-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Gloria in Bistrița.