Ladies Târgu Mureş W 0–1 FF Baia Mare W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

FT

0 – 1

FF Baia Mare W

11/20/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 9Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W46%

×Draw19%

FF Baia Mare W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ladies Târgu Mureş WExpected goals in this matchFF Baia Mare W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

2.25

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

2.57

FF Baia Mare W

2.25

Ladies Târgu Mureş W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.56

creates per match

1.26

3.25

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

1.56

FF Baia Mare W

1.26

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

3.25

FF Baia Mare W

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw

65%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or FF Baia Mare W

81%

Draw or FF Baia Mare W

54%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+

28%

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals

92%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals

72%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals

47%

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

89%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

65%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)

57%

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.57

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more

46%

level

19%

FF Baia Mare W scores more

35%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ladies Târgu Mureş W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff