Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3–0 Csikszereda MC W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

FT

3 – 0

Csikszereda MC W

9/25/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 4Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W22%

×Draw19%

Csikszereda MC W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ladies Târgu Mureş WExpected goals in this matchCsikszereda MC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.44

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

1.44

Csikszereda MC W

2.44

Csikszereda MC W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

1.56

creates per match

1.63

3.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

1.56

Csikszereda MC W

1.63

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W

3.25

Csikszereda MC W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

Csikszereda MC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw

41%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or Csikszereda MC W

81%

Draw or Csikszereda MC W

78%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+

9%

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals

76%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals

42%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals

18%

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals

91%

Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals

70%

Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)

27%

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

Csikszereda MC W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Csikszereda MC W attack 1.63 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more

22%

level

19%

Csikszereda MC W scores more

59%

Csikszereda MC W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff