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Lada Tolyatti vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
5/18/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Lada Tolyatti32%
×Draw24%
Zenit Izhevsk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Tolyatti
1.34
Zenit Izhevsk
1.61

Zenit Izhevsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti
1.00
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti
2.29
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw
56%
Lada Tolyatti or Zenit Izhevsk
76%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
68%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
14%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
74%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
39%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
15%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
80%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
48%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
42%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more
32%
level
24%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
44%

Zenit Izhevsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lada Tolyatti vs Zenit Izhevsk

Zenit Izhevsk beat Lada Tolyatti 5-1 in Second League - Group 4 on May 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.