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Lada Tolyatti vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
9/6/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lada Tolyatti14%
×Draw20%
Volga Ulyanovsk66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Tolyatti
0.85
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.11

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 148% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.93

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti
2.29
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.71

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw
34%
Lada Tolyatti or Volga Ulyanovsk
80%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
86%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
4%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
57%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
21%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
5%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
88%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
62%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
18%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.93 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more
14%
level
20%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
66%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Lada Tolyatti 0–3 Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Lada Tolyatti 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Tol'yatti.