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Lada Tolyatti vs Torpedo Miass — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
10/31/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lada Tolyatti23%
×Draw23%
Torpedo Miass54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Tolyatti
1.07
Torpedo Miass
1.77

Torpedo Miass creates 65% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.25

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti
2.29
Torpedo Miass
1.14

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw
46%
Lada Tolyatti or Torpedo Miass
77%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
77%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
8%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
66%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
29%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
9%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
83%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
53%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
30%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Torpedo Miass attack 1.25 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more
23%
level
23%
Torpedo Miass scores more
54%

Torpedo Miass at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Lada Tolyatti 1–2 Torpedo Miass

Torpedo Miass beat Lada Tolyatti 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Tol'yatti.