Lada Tolyatti 2–1 Sokol Kazan: Result & Stats

Lada Tolyatti

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sokol Kazan

9/14/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lada Tolyatti26%

×Draw23%

Sokol Kazan51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada TolyattiExpected goals in this matchSokol Kazan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.82

Lada Tolyatti

1.25

Sokol Kazan

1.82

Sokol Kazan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.35

2.29

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti

1.00

Sokol Kazan

1.35

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti

2.29

Sokol Kazan

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Sokol Kazan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Sokol Kazan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw

49%

Lada Tolyatti or Sokol Kazan

77%

Draw or Sokol Kazan

74%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

11%

Sokol Kazan wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

71%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

36%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

13%

Sokol Kazan 1+ goals

84%

Sokol Kazan 2+ goals

54%

Sokol Kazan 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

34%

Sokol Kazan (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Sokol Kazan away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Sokol Kazan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sokol Kazan attack 1.35 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more

26%

level

23%

Sokol Kazan scores more

51%

Sokol Kazan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sokol Kazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff