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Lada Tolyatti vs Nizhny Novgorod II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
6/29/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lada Tolyatti48%
×Draw23%
Nizhny Novgorod II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Tolyatti
1.81
Nizhny Novgorod II
1.38

Lada Tolyatti creates 31% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.46

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti
2.29
Nizhny Novgorod II
2.62

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw
71%
Lada Tolyatti or Nizhny Novgorod II
77%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II
52%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
26%
Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
84%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
54%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
27%
Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
75%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
40%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
62%
Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more
48%
level
23%
Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
29%

Lada Tolyatti at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lada Tolyatti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Lada Tolyatti 4–0 Nizhny Novgorod II

Lada Tolyatti beat Nizhny Novgorod II 4-0 in Second League - Group 4 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall in Syzran'.