Lada Tolyatti 2–2 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Lada Tolyatti

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Irtysh Omsk

9/27/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lada Tolyatti25%

×Draw22%

Irtysh Omsk53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada TolyattiExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.00

Lada Tolyatti

1.33

Irtysh Omsk

2.00

Irtysh Omsk creates 50% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.70

2.29

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti

1.00

Irtysh Omsk

1.70

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti

2.29

Irtysh Omsk

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw

47%

Lada Tolyatti or Irtysh Omsk

78%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

75%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

11%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

74%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

38%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

15%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

86%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

59%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

32%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.70 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more

25%

level

22%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

53%

Irtysh Omsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff