Lada Tolyatti 1–0 Dinamo Barnaul: Result & Stats

Lada Tolyatti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Barnaul

9/28/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Lada Tolyatti34%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Barnaul43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada TolyattiExpected goals in this matchDinamo Barnaul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.73

Lada Tolyatti

1.52

Dinamo Barnaul

1.73

Dinamo Barnaul creates 14% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 83 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

2.29

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti

1.00

Dinamo Barnaul

1.18

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti

2.29

Dinamo Barnaul

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw

57%

Lada Tolyatti or Dinamo Barnaul

77%

Draw or Dinamo Barnaul

66%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

78%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

45%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

44%

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.18 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more

34%

level

23%

Dinamo Barnaul scores more

43%

Dinamo Barnaul at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff