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Lada Tolyatti vs Akron — Cup 2019

Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Akron
Akron
7/20/2019CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lada Tolyatti18%
×Draw19%
Akron63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Tolyatti
1.13
Akron
2.27

Akron creates 101% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti
0.25
Akron
1.55

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti
3.00
Akron
2.00

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw
37%
Lada Tolyatti or Akron
81%
Draw or Akron
82%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
7%
Akron wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
68%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
31%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
11%
Akron 1+ goals
90%
Akron 2+ goals
66%
Akron 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
22%
Akron (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Akron away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.25 + Akron defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Akron attack 1.55 + Lada Tolyatti defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more
18%
level
19%
Akron scores more
63%

Akron at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Lada Tolyatti 1–3 Akron

Akron beat Lada Tolyatti 3-1 in Cup on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Tol'yatti.