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Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Novosibirsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
4/10/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad28%
×Draw30%
Novosibirsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.91
Novosibirsk
1.18

Novosibirsk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

creates per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.86
Novosibirsk
1.43

allows per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.93
Novosibirsk
0.95

finishing

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Dimitrovgrad ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lada Dimitrovgrad or draw
58%
Lada Dimitrovgrad or Novosibirsk
70%
Draw or Novosibirsk
72%

Winning margin

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
10%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
60%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
23%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
6%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
69%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
33%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
40%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 0.86 + Novosibirsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Novosibirsk attack 1.43 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
28%
level
30%
Novosibirsk scores more
42%

Novosibirsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Novosibirsk

Lada Dimitrovgrad and Novosibirsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Start in Ulyanovsk.