Lada Dimitrovgrad 1–1 Krylya Sovetov II

Lada Dimitrovgrad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Krylya Sovetov II

9/27/2020

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad43%

×Draw30%

Krylya Sovetov II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.87

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.17

Krylya Sovetov II

0.87

Lada Dimitrovgrad creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

0.86

creates per match

0.81

0.93

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad

0.86

Krylya Sovetov II

0.81

allows per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad

0.93

Krylya Sovetov II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Dimitrovgrad ↓

Krylya Sovetov II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lada Dimitrovgrad or draw

73%

Lada Dimitrovgrad or Krylya Sovetov II

70%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov II

57%

Winning margin

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

18%

Krylya Sovetov II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

69%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

33%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

11%

Krylya Sovetov II 1+ goals

58%

Krylya Sovetov II 2+ goals

22%

Krylya Sovetov II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

61%

Krylya Sovetov II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Krylya Sovetov II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 0.86 + Krylya Sovetov II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Krylya Sovetov II attack 0.81 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more

43%

level

30%

Krylya Sovetov II scores more

27%

Lada Dimitrovgrad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lada Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff