Laci 3–0 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats | Superliga

Laci

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Teuta Durrës

2/16/2025

Superliga · Round 25Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Laci46%

×Draw28%

Teuta Durrës26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaciExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.91

Laci

1.30

Teuta Durrës

0.91

Laci creates 43% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 144 away

1.48

creates per match

0.93

0.88

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Laci

1.48

Teuta Durrës

0.93

allows per match

Laci

0.88

Teuta Durrës

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laci+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laci ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Laci or draw

74%

Laci or Teuta Durrës

72%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

54%

Winning margin

Laci wins by 2+

21%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Laci 1+ goals

73%

Laci 2+ goals

37%

Laci 3+ goals

14%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

60%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

23%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Laci (draw refunded)

64%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laci at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laci attack 1.48 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Laci defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Laci scores more

46%

level

28%

Teuta Durrës scores more

26%

Laci at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff