Laci 0–0 Partizani: Result & Stats | Superliga

Laci

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Partizani

2/1/2025

Superliga · Round 23Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Laci41%

×Draw28%

Partizani30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaciExpected goals in this matchPartizani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Laci

1.25

Partizani

1.03

Laci creates 21% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 146 away

1.48

creates per match

1.19

0.88

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Laci

1.48

Partizani

1.19

allows per match

Laci

0.88

Partizani

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laci+0.00on par

Partizani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laci ↓

Partizani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Laci or draw

70%

Laci or Partizani

72%

Draw or Partizani

59%

Winning margin

Laci wins by 2+

18%

Partizani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Laci 1+ goals

71%

Laci 2+ goals

36%

Laci 3+ goals

13%

Partizani 1+ goals

64%

Partizani 2+ goals

28%

Partizani 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Laci (draw refunded)

58%

Partizani (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laci at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Partizani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laci attack 1.48 + Partizani defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Partizani attack 1.19 + Laci defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Laci scores more

41%

level

28%

Partizani scores more

30%

Laci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff