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Laci vs FK Kukesi — Superliga 2018

Laci
Laci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
5/3/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Round 31Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Laci45%
×Draw27%
FK Kukesi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laci
1.39
FK Kukesi
1.05

Laci creates 32% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 108 away

creates per match

Laci
1.48
FK Kukesi
1.22

allows per match

Laci
0.88
FK Kukesi
1.30

finishing

Laci+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laci ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Laci or draw
72%
Laci or FK Kukesi
73%
Draw or FK Kukesi
55%

Winning margin

Laci wins by 2+
21%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Laci 1+ goals
75%
Laci 2+ goals
40%
Laci 3+ goals
16%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
65%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
28%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Laci (draw refunded)
61%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laci at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laci attack 1.48 + FK Kukesi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

FK Kukesi attack 1.22 + Laci defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Laci scores more
45%
level
27%
FK Kukesi scores more
28%

Laci at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Laci 2–0 FK Kukesi

Laci beat FK Kukesi 2-0 in Superliga on May 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Laçi in Laç.