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FK Kukesi vs Laci — 1st Division 2019

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Laci
Laci
10/19/20251st Division1st Division · Round 7Kukes Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FK Kukesi23%
×Draw27%
Laci50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
0.86
Laci
1.42

Laci creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 16 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.17
Laci
1.50

allows per match

FK Kukesi
1.34
Laci
0.56

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Laci+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Laci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
50%
FK Kukesi or Laci
73%
Draw or Laci
77%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
7%
Laci wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
58%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
21%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
6%
Laci 1+ goals
76%
Laci 2+ goals
41%
Laci 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
31%
Laci (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Laci away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.17 + Laci defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Laci attack 1.50 + FK Kukesi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
23%
level
27%
Laci scores more
50%

Laci at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Kukesi vs Laci

Laci beat FK Kukesi 3-0 in 1st Division on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Kukes Arena.