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Laci vs Erzeni Shijak — Superliga 2018

Laci
Laci
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
5/7/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 32Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Laci51%
×Draw26%
Erzeni Shijak23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laci
1.52
Erzeni Shijak
0.94

Laci creates 62% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 36 away

creates per match

Laci
1.48
Erzeni Shijak
1.00

allows per match

Laci
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
1.56

finishing

Laci+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laci ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Laci or draw
77%
Laci or Erzeni Shijak
74%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
49%

Winning margin

Laci wins by 2+
26%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Laci 1+ goals
78%
Laci 2+ goals
45%
Laci 3+ goals
20%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
61%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
24%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laci (draw refunded)
68%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laci at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laci attack 1.48 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.00 + Laci defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Laci scores more
51%
level
26%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
23%

Laci at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Laci 1–1 Erzeni Shijak

Laci and Erzeni Shijak drew 1-1 in Superliga on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Laçi in Laç.