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Labunishta vs Vardar Forino — Second League 2019

Labunishta
Labunishta
FT
1 – 0
Vardar Forino
Vardar Forino
9/7/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 3Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Labunishta57%
×Draw24%
Vardar Forino19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Labunishta
1.70
Vardar Forino
0.86

Labunishta creates 98% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Labunishta
1.59
Vardar Forino
0.63

allows per match

Labunishta
1.09
Vardar Forino
1.81

finishing

Labunishta+0.00on par
Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Labunishta ↓

Vardar Forino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Labunishta or draw
81%
Labunishta or Vardar Forino
76%
Draw or Vardar Forino
43%

Winning margin

Labunishta wins by 2+
32%
Vardar Forino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Labunishta 1+ goals
82%
Labunishta 2+ goals
51%
Labunishta 3+ goals
24%
Vardar Forino 1+ goals
58%
Vardar Forino 2+ goals
21%
Vardar Forino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Labunishta (draw refunded)
75%
Vardar Forino (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Labunishta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Labunishta attack 1.59 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + Labunishta defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Labunishta scores more
57%
level
24%
Vardar Forino scores more
19%

Labunishta at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Labunishta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Labunishta 1–0 Vardar Forino

Labunishta beat Vardar Forino 1-0 in Second League on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.