Labunishta 3–2 Ohrid: Result & Stats

Labunishta

FT

3 – 2

Ohrid

3/1/2020

Second League · West - 15Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Labunishta46%

×Draw27%

Ohrid27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LabunishtaExpected goals in this matchOhrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Labunishta

1.43

Ohrid

1.02

Labunishta creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 82 away

1.59

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Labunishta

1.59

Ohrid

0.95

allows per match

Labunishta

1.09

Ohrid

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Labunishta+0.00on par

Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Labunishta ↓

Ohrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Labunishta or draw

73%

Labunishta or Ohrid

73%

Draw or Ohrid

54%

Winning margin

Labunishta wins by 2+

23%

Ohrid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Labunishta 1+ goals

76%

Labunishta 2+ goals

42%

Labunishta 3+ goals

17%

Ohrid 1+ goals

64%

Ohrid 2+ goals

27%

Ohrid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Labunishta (draw refunded)

63%

Ohrid (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Labunishta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Labunishta attack 1.59 + Ohrid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ohrid attack 0.95 + Labunishta defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Labunishta scores more

46%

level

27%

Ohrid scores more

27%

Labunishta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Labunishta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff