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Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Vigri Maarjamäe — Cup 2020

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsaluadvanced
FT
9 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Vigri Maarjamäe
Vigri Maarjamäe
10/18/2023CupCup · Round of 16Haapsalu Uuemõisa jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu89%
×Draw7%
Vigri Maarjamäe5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
6.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
1.58

Läänemaa Haapsalu creates 280% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.50

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.67
Vigri Maarjamäe
9.00

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Vigri Maarjamäe+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Vigri Maarjamäe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 46% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
91%9%4.5
79%21%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
95%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Vigri Maarjamäe
93%
Draw or Vigri Maarjamäe
11%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
77%
Vigri Maarjamäe wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
100%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
97%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
90%
Vigri Maarjamäe 1+ goals
79%
Vigri Maarjamäe 2+ goals
47%
Vigri Maarjamäe 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
95%
Vigri Maarjamäe (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Vigri Maarjamäe away — creates 0.50, concedes 9.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Vigri Maarjamäe defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 6.00

Vigri Maarjamäe attack 0.50 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
89%
level
7%
Vigri Maarjamäe scores more
5%

Läänemaa Haapsalu at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Läänemaa Haapsalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Läänemaa Haapsalu 9–1 Vigri Maarjamäe

Läänemaa Haapsalu beat Vigri Maarjamäe 9-1 in Cup on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at Haapsalu Uuemõisa jalgpallihall in Haapsalu Uuemõisa.