Läänemaa Haapsalu 2–3 Tulevik: Result & Stats

Läänemaa Haapsalu

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Tulevik

9/19/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 28Haapsalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu39%

×Draw21%

Tulevik40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Läänemaa HaapsaluExpected goals in this matchTulevik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.95

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.94

Tulevik

1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

1.46

creates per match

1.33

2.57

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.46

Tulevik

1.33

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.57

Tulevik

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Tulevik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Tulevik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw

60%

Läänemaa Haapsalu or Tulevik

79%

Draw or Tulevik

61%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

21%

Tulevik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

86%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

58%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

30%

Tulevik 1+ goals

86%

Tulevik 2+ goals

58%

Tulevik 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

50%

Tulevik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.57 · 37 matches

Tulevik away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.46 + Tulevik defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tulevik attack 1.33 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

39%

level

21%

Tulevik scores more

40%

Tulevik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tulevik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff