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Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Tartu Kalev — Esiliiga B 2026

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
8/10/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 22Haapsalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu29%
×Draw20%
Tartu Kalev51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.72
Tartu Kalev
2.29

Tartu Kalev creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 45 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.46
Tartu Kalev
2.02

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.57
Tartu Kalev
1.98

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Tartu Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
49%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Tartu Kalev
80%
Draw or Tartu Kalev
71%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
14%
Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
82%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
51%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
25%
Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
90%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
66%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
37%
Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.57 · 37 matches

Tartu Kalev away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.46 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tartu Kalev attack 2.02 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
29%
level
20%
Tartu Kalev scores more
51%

Tartu Kalev at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Tartu Kalev

Läänemaa Haapsalu and Tartu Kalev drew 1-1 in Esiliiga B on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Haapsalu Staadion in Haapsalu.