Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Rumori Calcio — Cup 2020

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsaluadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rumori Calcio
Rumori Calcio
M. Valkiainen 85'
S. Veski 83'
A. Tiits 31', 25', 22'
F. Guime 64'
7/23/2024CupCup · Round of 64Haapsalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu53%
×Draw17%
Rumori Calcio29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.33
Rumori Calcio
2.50

Läänemaa Haapsalu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00
Rumori Calcio
2.33

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.67
Rumori Calcio
3.67

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Rumori Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Rumori Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
71%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Rumori Calcio
83%
Draw or Rumori Calcio
47%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
36%
Rumori Calcio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
96%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
84%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
63%
Rumori Calcio 1+ goals
92%
Rumori Calcio 2+ goals
71%
Rumori Calcio 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
65%
Rumori Calcio (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Rumori Calcio away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Rumori Calcio defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Rumori Calcio attack 2.33 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
53%
level
17%
Rumori Calcio scores more
29%

Läänemaa Haapsalu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Läänemaa Haapsalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Tiits
25'
A. Tiits
31'
A. Tiits
64'
F. Guime
83'
S. Veski
85'
M. Valkiainen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Läänemaa Haapsalu 5–1 Rumori Calcio

Läänemaa Haapsalu beat Rumori Calcio 5-1 in Cup on July 23, 2024.

Goals: A. Tiits (22', 25', 31'), F. Guime (64'), S. Veski (83'), M. Valkiainen (85').

The match was played at Haapsalu Staadion in Haapsalu.