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Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Legion — Esiliiga B 2026

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Legion
Legion
11/3/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 35Haapsalu Uuemõisa jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu39%
×Draw20%
Legion41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.10
Legion
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 46 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.46
Legion
1.72

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.57
Legion
2.74

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
59%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Legion
80%
Draw or Legion
61%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
21%
Legion wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
88%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
62%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
35%
Legion 1+ goals
88%
Legion 2+ goals
63%
Legion 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
49%
Legion (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.57 · 37 matches

Legion away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.46 + Legion defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.10

Legion attack 1.72 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
39%
level
20%
Legion scores more
41%

Legion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Legion

Legion beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 6-1 in Esiliiga B on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Haapsalu Uuemõisa jalgpallihall in Haapsalu Uuemõisa.