Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Legion — Cup 2020

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
FT
2 – 8
HT: 1 – 2
Legion
Legionadvanced
8/17/2021CupCup · Round of 32Haapsalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu24%
×Draw16%
Legion60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.44
Legion
3.73

Legion creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00
Legion
4.78

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.67
Legion
1.89

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
40%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Legion
84%
Draw or Legion
76%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
13%
Legion wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
91%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
70%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
43%
Legion 1+ goals
97%
Legion 2+ goals
88%
Legion 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
29%
Legion (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Legion away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Legion defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.44

Legion attack 4.78 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
24%
level
16%
Legion scores more
60%

Legion at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Läänemaa Haapsalu 2–8 Legion

Legion beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 8-2 in Cup on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Haapsalu Staadion in Haapsalu.