Läänemaa Haapsalu 4–2 Kuressaare II: Result & Stats

Läänemaa Haapsalu

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kuressaare II

10/19/2025

Esiliiga B · Round 32Haapsalu Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu38%

×Draw21%

Kuressaare II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Läänemaa HaapsaluExpected goals in this matchKuressaare II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.10

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.01

Kuressaare II

2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

1.46

creates per match

1.64

2.57

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.46

Kuressaare II

1.64

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.57

Kuressaare II

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Kuressaare II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw

59%

Läänemaa Haapsalu or Kuressaare II

79%

Draw or Kuressaare II

62%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

21%

Kuressaare II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

87%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

59%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

32%

Kuressaare II 1+ goals

88%

Kuressaare II 2+ goals

62%

Kuressaare II 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

48%

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.57 · 37 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.46 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

38%

level

21%

Kuressaare II scores more

41%

Kuressaare II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuressaare II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff