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Läänemaa Haapsalu vs FC Levadia Tallinn — Cup 2020

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
FT
0 – 2
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
9/2/2020CupCup · 32nd FinalsHaapsalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu28%
×Draw19%
FC Levadia Tallinn53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.94
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.65

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.63

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.88

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
47%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or FC Levadia Tallinn
81%
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn
72%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
14%
FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
86%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
58%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
30%
FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
93%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
74%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
35%
FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.63 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
28%
level
19%
FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
53%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Läänemaa Haapsalu vs FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 2-0 in Cup on September 2, 2020.

The match was played at Haapsalu Staadion in Haapsalu.