Laagri 13–1 Tallinna FC Zapoos: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaagriExpected goals in this matchTallinna FC Zapoos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9.52

1.27

Laagri

9.52

Tallinna FC Zapoos

1.27

Laagri creates 650% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

11.86

creates per match

1.83

0.71

allows per match

7.17

creates per match

Laagri

11.86

Tallinna FC Zapoos

1.83

allows per match

Laagri

0.71

Tallinna FC Zapoos

7.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par

Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over99
Under1

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

Tallinna FC Zapoos →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–10%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–01%

2–11%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–1 (5%) · grid covers 24% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

99%1%3.5

96%4%4.5

89%11%

Double chance

Laagri or draw

99%

Laagri or Tallinna FC Zapoos

98%

Draw or Tallinna FC Zapoos

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+

92%

Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals

100%

Laagri 2+ goals

100%

Laagri 3+ goals

97%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals

72%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals

36%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)

99%

Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 11.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos away — creates 1.83, concedes 7.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 11.86 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 7.17 → ÷2 → 9.52

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 1.83 + Laagri defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 97%?"

Laagri scores more

97%

level

Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more

Laagri at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

13'

14'

31'

37'

43'

46'

61'

M. SompOwn goal

70'

73'

75'

76'

78'

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff