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Laagri vs Flora II — Esiliiga A 2026

Laagri
Laagri
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flora II
Flora II
3/17/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 3EJL Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Laagri55%
×Draw20%
Flora II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laagri
2.26
Flora II
1.47

Laagri creates 54% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 125 away

creates per match

Laagri
3.03
Flora II
2.03

allows per match

Laagri
0.92
Flora II
1.50

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par
Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

Flora II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Laagri or draw
75%
Laagri or Flora II
80%
Draw or Flora II
45%

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+
34%
Flora II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals
89%
Laagri 2+ goals
66%
Laagri 3+ goals
39%
Flora II 1+ goals
77%
Flora II 2+ goals
43%
Flora II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)
69%
Flora II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 3.03, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 3.03 + Flora II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.26

Flora II attack 2.03 + Laagri defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Laagri scores more
55%
level
20%
Flora II scores more
25%

Laagri at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Laagri 2–0 Flora II

Laagri beat Flora II 2-0 in Esiliiga A on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at EJL Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.