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Laagri vs FC Tallinn — Esiliiga A 2026

Laagri
Laagri
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
8/3/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 21Laagri kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Laagri64%
×Draw18%
FC Tallinn18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laagri
2.52
FC Tallinn
1.26

Laagri creates 100% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 64 away

creates per match

Laagri
3.03
FC Tallinn
1.59

allows per match

Laagri
0.92
FC Tallinn
2.02

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par
FC Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

FC Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Laagri or draw
82%
Laagri or FC Tallinn
82%
Draw or FC Tallinn
36%

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+
43%
FC Tallinn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals
92%
Laagri 2+ goals
71%
Laagri 3+ goals
45%
FC Tallinn 1+ goals
72%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
36%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)
78%
FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 3.03, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

FC Tallinn away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.02 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 3.03 + FC Tallinn defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.52

FC Tallinn attack 1.59 + Laagri defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Laagri scores more
64%
level
18%
FC Tallinn scores more
18%

Laagri at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laagri vs FC Tallinn

Laagri beat FC Tallinn 2-1 in Esiliiga A on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Laagri kunstmuru in Tallinn.