La Virgen del Camino 0–1 UD Santa Marta

La Virgen del Camino

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

UD Santa Marta

11/15/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

La Virgen del Camino45%

×Draw28%

UD Santa Marta27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Virgen del CaminoExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.95

La Virgen del Camino

1.30

UD Santa Marta

0.95

La Virgen del Camino creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 115 away

1.10

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino

1.10

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino

0.93

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw

73%

La Virgen del Camino or UD Santa Marta

72%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

55%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+

20%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals

73%

La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals

37%

La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals

14%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

61%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

25%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)

62%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more

45%

level

28%

UD Santa Marta scores more

27%

La Virgen del Camino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff